A Decade of Funding
July 7, 2015Next month is my 9 year anniversary in the merchant cash advance industry, which means I’ll be starting my 10th year. A decade of merchant cash advance… holy shit. I’ve had the opportunity to view it from many different angles and have accrued my fair share of adventures, plenty of which I’ve written about and others I’ll have to take to my grave.
I also launched this very website exactly 5-years ago under its original name MerchantProcessingResource.com. Not many people can say they’ve authored more than 600 stories (yes, seriously) on merchant cash advance, but I can. I’m fortunate to have turned something I merely enjoyed in the beginning into a business of its own.
Looking back now, there weren’t many people keeping a live diary of events as the industry dove headfirst into the financial crisis. Who would’ve bothered to report on an industry that was arguably made up of only a thousand people?
In April 2009, even before AltFinanceDaily launched, I submitted a story to the only merchant cash advance magazine of its kind. It didn’t have a very clever name, just Merchant Cash Advance Publication. My story, titled, An Underwriter in Salesman’s Clothing, rambled on about the end of the industry’s glory days, the wave of declined deals in the recession, and how funders should be more appreciative of ISOs.
Here’s a summary of what I wrote more than six years ago:
I was complaining about stacking as far back as 2007 apparently. I addressed it as a merchant problem. Merchants were taking advantage of funders, not the other way around like some frame the argument in 2015.
I left my post as Director of Underwriting in late 2008 because “I wanted the ringing phones, the commotion, the markerboards with stats, the glory, the $20,000 [monthly] checks.”
Funding companies became super conservative during the financial crisis and all my deals were being killed (25 deals declined in a row at one point.)
I had recently charged my first closing fee, felt bad about it, and got in trouble for it.
I said 1.40 factor rates wouldn’t last (I was wrong about this!)
I bitched about algorithmic declines (I apparently thought computers underwriting files was a good way to upset ISOs.)
I acknowledged my own hypocrisy when I realized how hard it was to be a sales rep after thinking sales reps were overpaid and overrated in my previous years as an underwriter.
I continued on as a sales rep for another two and a half years after I wrote that. That means that in 2010 when I started AltFinanceDaily, I was still calling UCCs, closing deals and boarding merchant accounts while sitting in a windowless room rented by a startup ISO.
But what was there to blog about in 2010? Oh little stuff like who the biggest funding companies were at the time by checking UCC filings since almost everyone filed UCCs back then. Notably, the third largest merchant cash advance company of 2010, First Funds, is no longer in business.
I also wrote about shopping deals around and the impact that might have on a merchant’s credit report. That was the day-to-day stuff though, information I was just putting out there hoping someone on the Internet might see it. What got everyone excited was the 2010 New York State leaderboard which eventually prompted me to spend my nights and weekends investigating the industry on a wider level.
I began talking to people at other funding companies about their monthly numbers. It wasn’t that hard to get information as an industry insider, especially if you had deals to send somebody’s way. I also spent money to acquire secured party lists to count the number of UCC filings by funders in all 50 states rather than just look at one free state like I did with New York originally. I think I was the only person in the industry at the time running up their personal credit card bill to conduct such research. I had also been in the industry for four years at that point and had a great network of contacts who could clue me in on their volume.
While I said that I also looked at census records and department of labor records, I’ll admit that data wasn’t extremely useful. The end result was a best guess estimate that in 2010, there were approximately 21,000 merchant cash advances transacted for $524 million.
My data would go on to be republished in ISO&Agent Magazine, The Scotsman Guide, and Leasing News, and also end up in many other places I didn’t expect, like in the business plans of merchant cash advance companies that were looking to raise capital. In fact, in a private meeting I had with an MCA company months later in South Florida, the CEO let me take a peek at the docs they had just submitted to a bank for a credit facility. Included was a printout of these numbers with my name on it and all. Apparently there was something to this writing thing…
My last day as a sales rep was in the Fall of 2011. I left the commission-only life (oh what, you 2015 pansy closers actually get a base salary?) for something even more risky, an entrepreneurial life. For a couple years, I played underwriting consultant to a handful of merchant cash advance companies and industry expert to institutional investors interested in the space. I learned how to code in my spare time and spent more than a year in online lead generation.
I never stopped writing.
Along the way I’ve visited the offices of dozens of ISOs and funders, syndicated in deals, and test-drove new technology.
None of this makes me particularly special, especially when I hear about how much some of my old sales buddies are making these days on deals. “Are you SURE you don’t want to come back?” they ask. It’s enticing no doubt. A part of me wants to grab the phone out of their hand and attempt to shatter their record on the markerboard this month even though I’m pretty sure I’m rusty as hell.
One thing noticeable between now and 9-years ago is that my hair turned grey. This industry will do that to you (or at least it did to me.) And I still get a kick out of meeting folks who got into the industry years before I did. The 90s/early 2000s AdvanceMe crowd likes to tell me that they were funding merchants while I was still in diapers. They are practically right.
As I enter my own tenth year in the biz however, it’s exciting to think that the industry is just now getting started. OnDeck was the first IPO in the space and the general public is learning about short term business funding for the first time. There’s no shortage of news to report and that keeps me plenty busy these days.
And so even after a decade of MCA, it’s never too late to put on your Funded pants. Opportunity awaits and I hope you’ll continue to ride the wave with me. Thanks for reading since 2010!
The Rest of the Alternative Lending Industry’s Funding Numbers
July 1, 2015
Let’s be serious, the industry’s much bigger than we may have let on when we published the industry leaderboard (some mods have been made) in the May/June issue.
Right after AltFinanceDaily sent the final file off to the printers in May, PayPal announced that the widely circulated $200 million lifetime funding figures were slightly outdated.
How off were they?
Oh, just by about $300 million or so. By May 7th, PayPal’s Working Capital program for small businesses had already exceeded $500 million. The industry leaderboard has been revised to reflect the news. PayPal says they are funding loans at the rate of $2 million per day, which puts them on pace for more than $700 million a year. Um, wow?
One name that’s missing from that list is Amazon, whose secretive short term business loan program is reported to have already generated hundreds of millions of dollars in loans. Given the $300 million discrepancy that PayPal let ruminate for months, we’re in no position to speculate on Amazon. Anyone could try to assess what they’ve been up to however, since they file UCCs on their clients under the secured party name “AMAZON CAPITAL SERVICES, INC.”
Of course if you’re craving specific numbers, an anonymous source inside Yellowstone Capital revealed that Yellowstone produced $35.5 Million worth of deals in the month of June alone. Yellowstone has a strategically diverse business model that allows them to either fund small businesses in-house (essentially on their own balance sheet) or broker them out to other funders. Yellowstone was listed on AltFinanceDaily’s May/June industry leaderboard at $1.1 Billion in lifetime deals and $290 Million in 2014. June’s figures indicate that they are probably well on their way to surpassing last year’s numbers.
Curiously, platform/lender/broker/marketplace company Biz2Credit has been hanging on to the same stodgy old number for more than a year.
Funded over $1.2 billion. 200,000+ happy customers.http://t.co/3h64lI4cgG #smallbusiness #Funding
— Biz2Credit (@biz2credit) June 19, 2015
They were touting that same $1.2 Billion number exactly 1 year ago. Surely they have done more since then? Biz2Credit’s service covers a much wider scope however so a direct comparison with their peers may not be appropriate. A lot of their loans are arranged through traditional banks which are typically transacted in amounts larger than the average $25,000 deal alternative lenders do.
A source familiar with Biz2Credit’s breadth said he observed a deal where the company helped a businessman in Mexico obtain financing to purchase a new helicopter, a transaction which apparently necessitated a team to fly down there to sign paperwork. Definitely not a standard transaction!
When we published the industry leaderboard initially, it admittedly omitted some of the industry’s largest players. Many firms are fairly secretive about the numbers they release and we’re in no position to disclose numbers that aren’t supposed to be public. Below is data that we hadn’t published previously.
The industry’s unsung behemoths
The $300 million lifetime funding figure publicized by NYC-based Fora Financial can’t be that stale. It’s the number currently stated on their website and a late February 2015 company announcement revealed they were only at $295 million at the time. We feel comfortable enough to now have Fora Financial on the leaderboard.
In 2014, Delaware-based Swift Capital revealed that they had funded more than $500 million. It’s unclear how much that’s increased since then.
Credibly (formerly RetailCapital), has publicized that they’ve funded more than $140 million in their lifetime. Founded in Michigan, the company has opened offices in New York, Arizona, and Massachusetts. They’ve been added to the lifetime leaderboard.
New York City-based AmeriMerchant has a claim on their website that they have funded more than $500 million since inception. How much more exactly? We’re not sure.
Coral Springs, FL-based Business Financial Services keeps their figures mostly under wraps but a good guess would place their lifetime figures at somewhere between $700 million and $1.2 billion.
Miami, FL-based 1st Merchant Funding had reportedly funded close to $100 million in the Spring of 2014. It’s uncertain as to where they might be now.
Woodland Hills, CA-based ForwardLine surpassed $250 million in funding as far back as 2013.
Orange, CA-based Quick Bridge Funding disclosed more than $200 million in funding in late 2014.
Troy, MI-based Capital For Merchants has funded $220 million since inception. But there’s more to the story. Capital For Merchants is owned by North American Bancard, a merchant processing firm that acquired another merchant cash advance company, Miami, FL-based Rapid Capital Funding in late 2014. And coincidentally, Rapid Capital Funding had just acquired American Finance Solutions months earlier, which is an Anaheim, CA-based merchant cash advance company that had funded more than $250 million since inception. All told, North American Bancard owns at least three merchant cash advance companies: Capital For Merchants ($220 million), American Finance Solutions ($250 million+), and Rapid Capital Funding (undisclosed). There are rumors that they’re in talks to acquire at least one more company in the space, which, if true, would make North American Bancard one of the industry’s most powerful players.
Don’t bother counting up the above totals
These figures all barely scratch the surface as AltFinanceDaily’s database indicates there are literally hundreds of genuine direct funders in the industry.
Thanks to the company representatives that took the time to confirm their funding numbers with us directly. Anyone interested in sharing their figures can email sean@debanked.com. If there is a gross inaccuracy somewhere as well, please report it to us.
This page might be updated in the future so check back!
What Happened to OnDeck? (ONDK)
June 29, 2015The lockup expiration came and went but the fall of OnDeck’s stock price started much before that. There were no insider stock sales reported to the SEC since shares became unrestricted anyway.
There’s very little trading volume on an average day and investors on the big message boards either ignore this stock or don’t understand it.
The trend started on May 4th when they released Q1 earnings. The direction wasn’t very much different than Q4. Loan volume went up, interest rates came down, and no profits were to be had, nor were any expected for the rest of the year.
The market interpreted decreasing interest rates as pressure from competitive forces however and down went the stock price.
OnDeck’s execs insisted that they had lowered rates as part of a deliberate strategy to create stickier customers and attract new borrowers. CEO Noah Breslow himself said during the previous 2014 Q4 earnings call that “there’s so much search cost associated with going out and looking at other places and so much uncertainty around that, they [small businesses] typically just take that offer that OnDeck has provided to them.”
His theory is supported by the results of Lending Tree’s recent survey that revealed nearly 60% of small businesses did not comparison shop business loans online during their loan application process.
It’s possible though that the drop had little to do with OnDeck’s actual performance. That same day, Goldman Sachs hinted that they would be joining the tech-based lending field when they announced the hire of Harit Talwar from Discover Financial Services.
But before they had a chance to recover, Barrons published a story that was highly critical of OnDeck just a month later on June 5th. “It’s a subprime lender in dot-com clothing,” the author wrote. It was a tough characterization for them to refute, what with their 50% interest rates and double digit percentage charge-offs and all.
And then the lockup expiration on June 15th coincided with the big reveal of Goldman’s intentions to compete in the marketplace. News sources that picked up the story predicted that the move would impact online lenders like Lending Club and OnDeck. OnDeck’s stock hit a record low that day.
OnDeck has been stuck in the 12s ever since. Can they dig themselves out?
If competition is a factor in the market’s perception, and it probably should be, then investors should keep an eye on the industry’s other top players. OnDeck is not alone in this space and Goldman Sachs will be in for a bigger fight than they probably expect.
Source: AltFinanceDaily’s May/June Magazine issue
Still Reviewing Paper Bank Statements? Stop
June 26, 2015
Are the bank statements you received legitimate? Underwriters in the business financing industry are scouring paper documents for abnormalities hoping to catch fraud in the inducement. And word on the street is that small business owners are doctoring statements and engaging in trickery in record numbers.
Technology has made it easier to create authentic looking documents and the rise in online lending seems to be bringing out the worst in people. Somebody in a desperate situation might not have the guts to look a banker in the eye and hand him a stack of fraudulent documents but they might roll the dice with somebody over the Internet they’ll never have to meet.
The fakes aren’t obvious anymore. Anyone can go online and buy doctored documents from professionals. The business is booming on Craigslist for example where fraudulent documents can be made to order in under an hour.
In the Miami area, fraud hucksters are even beginning to offer deals such as buy 2 fake documents, get 1 free.
Industry-wide, funding companies are complaining that attempted fraud is out of control. One broker recently took to the dailyfunder forum to share her frustration. “I can spot them a mile away!!! 2 different deals submitted this week with fraudulent statements!!!,” she vented.
Other brokers chimed in, sharing their stories such as a merchant whose doctored statements were only noticed because ATM withdrawals were listed with odd amounts like $90.83.
Oddly, nobody seems to be reporting this fraud to the authorities. It all seems to get swept under the rug as business as usual. Orchard co-founder David Snitkoff for example, was asked just last month about the rate of marketplace lending fraud and he apparently said, “No worries, none to date.” He seemed to be implying that fraudulent applicants are getting screened out. But that doesn’t mean people aren’t trying.
Seven months ago, merchant cash advance underwriter Pierre Mena wrote in detail about the challenges he faces in detecting fraud. He said:
Some of the more well hidden fraud can usually be found by comparing the summary page and last page of the bank statement to other statements. Typically, most banks and some credit unions offer you a snapshot of the starting balance, which should generally match up with the ending balance of the previous month. If it doesn’t, you should look for any transactions from the previous month that did not settle until the current month. If there is none, this is usually a red flag indicating that the merchant forgot that statements are continual time series financial data whose totals carry on to the following month.
-Pierre Mena, Rapid Capital Funding
A lot of these issues can be easily overcome by simply disregarding paper statements altogether. Microbilt’s instant bank verification tool for example, will allow you to pull the most recent 90 days worth of transaction data directly from the banks themselves. Funders using these automated checks swear by their effectiveness and the capability is essential for any company that wants to scale.
But a recent conversation with the owners of a broker shop in NYC said this is easier said than done. Merchants are still using fax machines to send statements or claiming they don’t have access to computers or email accounts, they said. They added that their clients would suffer if approvals were completely contingent upon online verifications.
Cultural differences play a role in this according to Gil Zapata, the founder of Florida-based Lendinero. Zapata recently wrote that latino business owners over the age of 45 are not accustomed to doing business over the Internet, email, fax, or phone. “This group has a high level of distrust in doing business via the Internet,” he said.
So is there a middle ground? On the dailyfunder forum, Chad Otar, a managing partner of Excel Capital Management said that he tells merchants they can change their online banking passwords after a verification. And Andy McDonald of Yellowstone Capital wrote that verifying the bank data is beneficial for the merchants too. “It protects the merchant by allowing us to check their account to make sure our pulls aren’t going to bounce,” he wrote in a thread back in April. He also added that he comes across 2-3 applications PER DAY with altered statements.
Humans can only do so much. Pierre Mena actually wrote, “Some of these statements are doctored so well that you may have to zoom in upwards of 300% to find a comma that should actually be a period to separate dollars from cents.” At this point, an instant bank verification would probably work wonders.
Online business lender Kabbage might have the best model. On their website, applicants are instructed to enter their email address followed by their bank account username and password. Their system will analyze their bank transactions and if eligible, will then ask the applicant for their first and last name. It flies in the face of all the pushback that funders claim merchants give them over data privacy and security.
Four months ago Kabbage announced they were already up to funding $3 million per day. Obviously there is an entire segment of small business owners that are sucking up whatever concerns they had about bank verifications in order to get the capital they need.
The majority of the small business financing industry is still relying on paper statements and probably shouldn’t be. If you have to zoom in upwards of 300% to find a comma that should actually be a period and if con artists are offering discounts for bulk orders of fraudulent statements, it may be time to throw in the towel and join the rest of the world in using the Internet…
Coming to the Rescue: Consolidation Can Save Merchants
June 24, 2015
In the last 18 months, funders have begun offering consolidations that combine more than one advance. First, the funders buy out the merchant’s existing advances. Then funders lower the percentage collected from a merchant’s card receipts or debited by ACH. Sometimes, consolidation can even include an infusion of cash for the merchant.
“Consolidations are a way to help merchants avoid defaulting,” said Chad Otar, managing partner at New York-based Excel Capital. Consolidation works if the buyout price is low enough and the terms allow enough room to handle the obligation.
“It can free up some cash and give the merchant some room to breathe, sustain the business and avoid taking on more debt,” he noted.
It’s helpful to think of consolidation as the equivalent of refinancing a house, according to Stephen Halasnik, managing partner at Payroll Financing Solutions, a Ridgewood N.J.-based direct lender. Payroll has been offering the service for about six months, he said.
Brokers and funders can benefit from consolidation because it puts a merchant back on track towards long-term sustainability, said a broker who requested anonymity. Moreover, the broker said that one in three of the potential deals he sees have multiple advances outstanding, which means companies could lose an alarming chunk of market share by declining too many potential funding candidates. “That’s what I believe the catalyst was to opening the doors to consolidation,” he contended.
SECRET TO SUCCESS
Success in consolidation lies in finding merchants worthy of another chance, said Otar. Clients who have taken two or three advances but stick to the new plan and stop stacking advances from other brokers have a reasonably good chance of succeeding, he said. His company can work with a merchant that has as many as three advances outstanding if they have sufficient revenue.
Otar provided the example of a merchant who’s diverting 20% of his gross revenue to three advances. Together, the advances have led to a total of $50,000 in future revenues sold. If the merchant generates enough monthly revenue to qualify for $100,000, Excel can buy out the three advances, provide the merchant with $50,000 in cash, and lower the payment to 8% to 12% of gross revenue. “All of a sudden they have all this cash flow to play with that really wasn’t there,” he said of merchants in that situation. “They tend to do really well.”
Halasnik of Payroll Financing Solutions offered the example of a trucking company that had taken three advances and was delivering a total of $1,138 a day on average to the funders. Payroll bought out the three funders and is charging the trucker $615 a day.
One of Payroll’s clients needed to repair a commercial vehicle but already had too many advances and couldn’t get another, Halasnik said. Payroll consolidated the positions and lowered the payment, enabling the merchant to save enough money in two weeks to have the vehicle fixed.
To qualify for a consolidation, the merchant has to meet the “50% Rule” by netting 50% of what Excel is offering, Otar said. Between 40% and 50% of the distressed merchants that the company considers for consolidation meet that criterion, he said. An additional 30% of the merchants can meet that standard in the near future, once they’re further along on their agreements.
Under the 50% Rule, a merchant that is still obliged to deliver $70,000 and qualifies for $100,000 would not be a candidate for consolidation, Otar said. In that situation, a merchant can wait until he has delivered more of the sold revenues to the funders and then get a consolidation, he said. “In the meantime, don’t take on any more debt,” Otar tells the merchants. That too could impact their ability to sell additional revenue streams in return for cash upfront down the road.
Some merchants combine debt and advances, seeking advances only after maxing out their credit lines, said Otar. More commonly, however, it’s a matter of stacking advances, he said. “When we see there are three, four, five, six, seven cash advances out, that’s a merchant we tend to stay away from,” he noted.
Brokers should also bear in mind that every deal’s different, cautioned Steven Kamhi, who handles business development and ISO relationships at Nulook Capital, a Massapequa, N.Y.-based direct funder. “It has to be the right deal,” he advises.
Brokers can identify distressed merchants within the first two minutes of a phone conversation when they say things like, “I need the money right now,” Otar said. Looking at the paperwork, the broker can see within 10 minutes whether the potential client is hard-pressed.
Asking the right questions helps reveal distress quickly, sources said. That can include asking how many advances the merchant has outstanding, how much in future sales they still have to deliver and how much revenue they’re grossing monthly. Asking what company advanced them cash can reveal a lot if they’re working with less-reputable companies.
Listening’s under-rated, too. Merchants sometimes explain that they’re coming up with more ways of making money and are, therefore, making themselves a better bet for sustainability, Otar said.
OTHER WAYS OF HELPING
Brokers can make deals more palatable to some distressed merchants by deducting payments weekly instead of daily, Otar said. “It’s something I’m seeing a big migration toward,” he noted. “It’s a big selling point.” Manufacturers and contractors don’t have customers swiping cards every day and especially appreciate the change. More widely spaced payments can also fit better with some clients’ seasonal cash flow.
Besides consolidation, brokers can help distressed merchants by providing traditional accounts-receivable financing, which can prove particularly helpful for manufacturers and construction companies, Otar said.
Suppose Customer A owes a contractor $100, Otar said by way of example. The contractor can get $90 from the factor, and the factor collects the $100 from Customer A. The client pays the cost of the financing upfront but reduces the waiting time to receive the cash and avoids daily or monthly payments.
Accounts-receivable financing costs merchants much less than a cash advance, Otar noted. But putting the deal together takes longer than approving an advance, and merchants in immediate need of cash might not be able to wait.
In another example of helping merchants, Payroll had a client who was a bicycle shop owner with good credit and equity in a home, so it granted him an advance that gave him time to go to a bank and get a home equity loan. “I counseled him to do that and then buy us out,” Halasnik said.
PREVENTING DISTRESS
On the sales side of the business, brokers can help distressed merchants by preventing stacking from occurring in the first place, sources said. Otar recommended, “listening to the customer, understanding the business and offering a product that is going to benefit the customer in the long run.” That way, the broker positions himself to work with the client for years, not two or three months. “At the end of the day, they appreciate that,” he said.
Halasnik relies on his experience as a small-business owner who has operated a printing company, staffing company and nurse registry to help him understand aspects of a client’s business that people from a purely financial background might not fathom.
Brokers seeking long-term relationships should know a client’s business well enough to advise against taking on more financial obligations when the time isn’t right, agreed Payroll’s Halasnik. However, after the broker urges caution, the decision rests with the business owner, he maintained. “We are on the same page as the client,” Halasnik said. “We are looking out for their best interest because, ultimately, we have to get paid back.”
THE CASE AGAINST CONSOLIDATION
Some members of the industry prefer to avoid the consolidation trend. “The guy’s already shown that he’s going to go and take three or four advances,” said Isaac Stern, CEO of New York-based Yellowstone Capital. “Doesn’t history just show he’s going to do the same thing over again?”
When a merchant’s overextended, he should wait before taking another advance, Stern said. But when some merchants are denied another advance, they immediately seek out another funder, he maintained.
Yellowstone has put together a few consolidations but chooses not to create too many, Stern said. Some merchants find themselves a month or two away from going out of business unless they can find a source of cash, he observed. “They’ve been declined for that last credit card, and things are getting really rough,” he said.
Some members of the industry advocate coming together to improve standards and provide training. Wall Street’s testing and licensing could serve as an example, suggested one source. Background checks could also help root out unethical players, he noted.
But creating a training and certification infrastructure would prove a formidable task, according to Stern. The industry would have a hard time agreeing upon who should head a trade association to administer the standards, he said. He views the industry as a collection of Type A personalities – sometimes defined as ambitious, over-achieving workaholics – who would resist consensus. “It’s a nice idea, but I don’t see it working,” he said.
REASON TO BELIEVE
Though industry players are contending with some distressed merchants, Stern noted that the average credit score of his company’s clients is beginning to rise as the economy improves.
Though statistics on distressed merchants aren’t readily available, other industry veterans feel they’re not encountering as many now as a year ago. However, they said they may see fewer cases of distress because bigger players are beginning to offer consolidations.
“A year ago, nobody would consider doing it,” a broker said of consolidation. But as funders become more open to the product when they see competitors using it to gain market share. “It’s becoming more mainstream,” he said.
How brokers market their services can also determine how many distressed merchants they encounter, sources said. Using the same prospect lists that competitors use can lead to calling on overextended clients, they maintained.
Whatever the number of distressed merchants may be, stacking sometimes makes sense, said Halasnik. What if a client needs $30,000 to win a contract, and a funder is willing to provide only $15,000, he asked rhetorically. Perhaps another funder will put in $15,000, too.
Problems arise, however, if the two funders don’t know the merchant has made two deals because they happened the same day. It’s the kind of situation that sours some members of the alternative-funding community to consolidation. As Halasnik put it: “You’re dealing with somebody who’s in trouble. It’s the highest risk a lender could take.”
Wall Street Has a New Landlord
June 20, 2015
“You stole my deal bro!”
“No I didn’t. The merchant hated your offer,” replies back a 25-year old dressed in a dark pinstripe suit with no tie.
He then takes a pull from his half-smoked cigarette and continues, “The guy wanted 90k and you offered him twenty. I was at least able to get him fifty. What’d you think was going to happen?”
I walk past the two who eye me suspiciously and am quickly out of hearing range of their conversation. They were strangers, but I know exactly what they were talking about. Walking around the neighborhood here, I feel oddly at home.
This is Wall Street, a new stronghold for the small business financing industry. Midtown has traditionally been the epicenter for merchant cash advance companies, but somewhere along the way, new players started opening up their shops in lower Manhattan.
As a born and bred New Yorker, I never really saw a need to visit the actual street of Wall Street. To my knowledge, it was simply emblematic of high finance, not really a physical place anymore.
But earlier this year when I signed a lease at 14 Wall Street, I would be thrust into the middle of America’s biggest breeding ground for financial brokers and learn once and for all that the ebb and flow of Wall Street isn’t exactly gone, just transformed.
From my office up on the 20th floor, I can see into the windows of the top five stories of the New York Stock Exchange building. The floors appear to be set up for traders, with long white continuous desks peppered with large monitors on both sides. Everyone sits and stares intensely at their screens, pressing buttons on their keyboard at rapid fire pace. Nobody runs around screaming orders anymore.
Outside, tour guides tell excited onlookers about the stock exchange’s past. It’s a historical landmark, a place to learn about history, not necessarily witness it. The spirit is still alive though in a zombified made-for-the-cameras kind of way. OnDeck recently kicked off their IPO there and so too did Lending Club.
While tourists dance around aimlessly and upload photos to facebook to show they were there, men and women in the office floors above them are engaged in a different kind of dance. Packed in elbow to elbow with phones glued to their ears, commercial financing brokers shout large numbers at an accelerated pace.
Often lacking luxury amenities such as windows, brokers on Wall Street are weathering the heat and lack of oxygen to move money to Main Streets all across America.
When they come out for air to breathe, the tourists move out of their way, as if they’ve suddenly become aware that people are actually trying to get some work done down here.
The little strip of Broad Street between Wall Street and Exchange Place is kind of like a schoolyard for the merchant cash advance industry. War stories are exchanged, cigarettes shared and dreams dreamed. One day, I’m going to start my own ISO and I’ll do it differently because…
You can walk in any direction. The industry can be found on Broad Street, William Street, Pine Street, and Broadway. It’s on Water Street, Rector Street, Maiden Lane, and Fulton Street. It extends outward almost infinitely to Midtown, Brooklyn, Queens, Long Island, Staten Island, The Bronx, Westchester, Orange County, and New Jersey.
And while there are hubs in the outer parts, the most unique experience by far is down here on Wall Street, where you’re infinitely more likely to overhear professionals shouting “ACHs” and “stacks” than “puts” and “calls.”
Although the guides teach tourists that Wall Street as they imagined it to be is dead, Wall Street itself can never die.
Every now and then a pedestrian will look up at the offices above and wonder if the magic of fast-talking finance still exists. Is that world gone forever?
Not quite…
The stockbrokers may be gone, but there’s a new landlord. Wall Street belongs to the small business financing industry now.
The Official Business Financing Leaderboard
June 20, 2015A handful of funders that were large enough to make this list preferred to keep their numbers private and thus were omitted.
| Funder | 2014 |
| SBA-guaranteed 7(a) loans < $150,000 | $1,860,000,000 |
| OnDeck* | $1,200,000,000 |
| CAN Capital | $1,000,000,000 |
| AMEX Merchant Financing | $1,000,000,000 |
| Funding Circle (including UK) | $600,000,000 |
| Kabbage | $400,000,000 |
| Yellowstone Capital | $290,000,000 |
| Strategic Funding Source | $280,000,000 |
| Merchant Cash and Capital | $277,000,000 |
| Square Capital | $100,000,000 |
| IOU Central | $100,000,000 |
*According to a recent Earnings Report, OnDeck had already funded $416 million in Q1 of 2015
| Funder | Lifetime |
| CAN Capital | $5,000,000,000 |
| OnDeck | $2,000,000,000 |
| Yellowstone Capital | $1,100,000,000 |
| Funding Circle (including UK) | $1,000,000,000 |
| Merchant Cash and Capital | $1,000,000,000 |
| Business Financial Services | $1,000,000,000 |
| RapidAdvance | $700,000,000 |
| Kabbage | $500,000,000 |
| PayPal Working Capital* | $500,000,000 |
| The Business Backer | $300,000,000 |
| Fora Financial | $300,000,000 |
| Capital For Merchants | $220,000,000 |
| IOU Central | $163,000,000 |
| Credibly | $140,000,000 |
| Expansion Capital Group | $50,000,000 |
*Many reputable sources had published PayPal’s Working Capital lifetime loan figures to be approximately $200 million in early 2015, but just a couple months later PayPal blogged that the number was more than twice that amount at $500 million since inception. The print version of AltFinanceDaily’s May/June magazine issue stated the smaller amount since it had already gone to print before PayPal’s announcement was made.
Bless You, Fund Me: What Words Predict About Loan Performance
June 7, 2015
Way back in 2006 when I was just a baby merchant cash advance* underwriter, I encountered a book store that was borderline qualified. The final phone interview would make or break their approval so I grabbed my pen and paper and dialed their number.
I went through the checklist of questions and they passed. But what really convinced me that it was a deal worth doing was the amount of times the owners made references to God. They were clearly religious people which indicated to me that they were probably also of high moral character. It didn’t matter what religion it was or if their beliefs aligned with mine, I was simply captivated by their values.
After approving the deal and funding them, they actually mailed me a handwritten letter to express their gratitude. It concluded with, “God Bless You!” and I hung it up on the wall of my cubicle to remind myself of the good I was doing for small businesses.
A few weeks later, the payments stopped. All of their contact numbers were disconnected and the owners of the store could not be located. They completely disappeared along with almost all of the money. Looking up at the note on my wall, a shiver went up my spine. Had I been duped? And did they use religion as a tool to influence my decision?
I thought that surely they must’ve encountered legitimate financial difficulty but I believed that even if so, people with their values would’ve been more forthcoming about it. Instead they just took the money and split and were never heard from again.
I learned a lesson about being emotionally influenced on a deal and it turns out there were clues this outcome might happen all along.
Bless you
In a study titled, When Words Sweat: Written Words Can Predict Loan Default, Columbia University professors Oded Netzer and Alain Lemaire, and University of Delaware professor Michal Herzenstein analyzed the text of more than 18,000 loan requests made on Prosper’s website. Applicants that used the word God were 2.2x more likely to default on their loans. And the phrase Bless you correlated higher on the default scale as well, though not as high as other non-religious words.
On the list of words more likely to be mentioned by defaulters are, I promise, please help, and give me a chance. Statistics actually show that someone promising to pay is less likely to pay than someone that doesn’t explicitly promise.
Among the other more common words likely to be mentioned by defaulters is hospital. This word holds special significance to me because in my last year as a sales rep, almost all of my underperforming accounts were supposedly due to the business owners or their family members being in the hospital.
And it wasn’t just me. It seemed like every deal that was going bad in the office involved the hospital. Any time one of us was due to contact an account with an issue, we made bets that a hospital would come up in the story. (Seb, if you’re reading this, apparently it’s not a coincidence.)
I express no opinion regarding whether or not their stories were true, but statistics show that borrowers that mention hospital are more likely to default.
In the study’s Abstract, the professors wrote:
Using a naïve Bayes analysis and the LIWC dictionary of writing styles we find that those who default write about financial hardship and tend to discuss outside sources such as family, god and chance in their loan request, while those who pay in full express high financial literacy in the words they use. Further, we find that writing styles associated with extraversion, agreeableness and deception are correlated with default.
While the study focused on Prosper, their almost identical competitor, Lending Club, may have realized this trend earlier. In March 2014, Lending Club announced that investors would no longer be able to view the free-form writing portion of the borrower loan application. Citing “privacy reasons,” investors lost a valuable clue into the repayment probability of their notes.
But would it really have helped? The researchers wrote:
Using an ensemble learning algorithm we show that leveraging the textual information in loan requests improves our ability to predict loan default by 4-5.7% over the traditionally used financial information.
Nothing to see here folks, move along and approve
Curiously, Lending Club doesn’t want its investors to have access to a data point with such significant importance. Perhaps it’s because of disasters like this, where one borrower used the free-form writing section to spew profanities. Ironically, the loan was approved and issued anyway.
For tech-based platforms like Lending Club however, they noticed the “story” aspect of a loan had become less relevant because of overwhelming investor demand. Investors weren’t evaluating the written portion of the loan application as much anymore. According to their blog post at the time of the announcement, “Fewer than 3% of investors currently ask questions and only 13% of posted loans have answers provided by borrowers. Furthermore, loans are currently funding in as little as a few hours – well before borrower answers and descriptions can be reviewed and posted.”
It had become all algorithms and APIs where loans were fully funded by investors before the written portions could even be published on the website. Had anyone actually taken the time to read the above loan application answers, they probably wouldn’t have allocated money towards it.
But while removing the storyline from the data might give investors fewer methods to detect a good loan, it could actually protect them from getting drawn into a bad loan.
One of the authors of the above referenced study, Professor Michal Herzenstein of University of Delaware, found in 2011 that borrowers could manipulate lenders into not only approving them, but giving them more favorable terms.
You can trust me 😉
In a story that appeared on UD’s website in 2011, titled Good Storytelling May Trump Bad Credit, Herzenstein’s research discovered that borrowers who constructed a trustworthy picture of themselves “could lower their costs by almost 30 percent and saved about $375 in interest charges by using a trustworthy identity.”
The study referred to six possible categories or identities that borrowers would try to impress upon lenders to describe themselves (trustworthy, successful, economic hardship, hardworking, moral, religious). The story explains:
The more identities the borrowers constructed, the more likely lenders were to fund the loan and reduce the interest rate but the less likely the borrowers were to repay the loan – 29 percent of borrowers with four identities defaulted, where 24 percent with two identities and 12 percent with no identities defaulted.
It’s a case of measurable borrower manipulation.
“By analyzing the accounts borrowers give and the identities they construct, we can predict whether borrowers will pay back the loan above and beyond more objective factors like their credit history,” said Herzenstein. “In a sense, our results offer a method of assessing borrowers in ways that hark back to the earlier days of community banking when lenders knew their customers.”
Today’s tech-based lenders that are dead set on removing this human aspect from the equation may be taking a shortsighted approach after all as they evidently still struggle to make predictions with their numbers-only approach.
For example, a poster on the Lend Academy forum recently wrote this to me about early defaults in today’s algorithmic environment, “It would be nice if LC could predict who is going to default in the first few months of the loan and deny them, but I don’t think that is entirely possible.”
It reminded me of a big merchant cash advance deal I approved years back that passed all of the qualifying criteria with flying colors and still defaulted on the very first day. The merchant’s response to why he defaulted on day one? He felt like screwing us over… “Come sue me,” he said.
In a later meeting to review the deal’s paperwork, a group of managers agreed that I had done all I could to make the approval decision except one. I failed to account for the asshole factor.
Far from satire, it is not uncommon for financial companies to refer to an asshole factor in some regard. It’s a very subjective variable but it can make all the difference between an applicant that’s going to pay and one that’s not. Suddenly none of the hard data matters.
Is the applicant an asshole?
In a recent blog post by loan broker Ami Kassar, titled The Single Most Important Rule in Our Company, Kassar wrote, “if a customer, employee, or partner acts like a jerk – we don’t want to do business with them. If you want to be less diplomatic, you can call the rule – the no ###hole rule.”
In many circumstances, the measure of someone being an asshole is relative to another person’s perception. There’s even an entire book on that subject if you’re interested. But what’s trickier, is that according to some studies, being an asshole is a positive thing in business. Would that also make them better borrowers statistically?
Referring back to the original cited study, one has to wonder if there might potentially be a list of words that more closely correlate with being an asshole. I don’t think anyone’s ever examined the Prosper data for that before.
You might not be able to quantify asshole-ishness from the text, but something as basic as a person’s pronouns can speak volumes about their personality or intentions. According to Professor James Pennebaker in the Harvard Business Review:
A person who’s lying tends to use “we” more or use sentences without a first-person pronoun at all. Instead of saying “I didn’t take your book,” a liar might say “That’s not the kind of thing that anyone with integrity would do.” People who are honest use exclusive words like “but” and “without” and negations such as “no,” “none,” and “never” much more frequently.
But saying “I” over “we” doesn’t necessarily make you less of a liar. Pennebaker discovered that depressed people use the word “I” much more often than emotionally stable people.
Being emotionally stable would probably make for a better borrower than a depressed one, but with all these influential and conflicting language clues, how can an underwriter possibly make the right choice?
For instance, if the following line appeared on the free-form writing portion of an application, how should it be interpreted?
Using all of the mentioned research as a guide, I’m inclined to consider the applicant a: trustworthy depressed lying asshole that’s not going to pay.
I = Depressed
We = Liar
God = 2.2x more likely to default
Have always been able to pay back = trustworthy
Hurry up and fund me = asshole
We could easily get caught up in the language here and ignore the obvious positives about this hypothetical applicant, such that they have an 800 FICO score and a solid six figure income. Shouldn’t that weigh more heavily? It’s easy to get distracted.
Perhaps Lending Club’s removal of the free-form writing section was for the investors’ own good. Even the borrower that repeatedly wrote, “None of your f**king business I thought this was a bank loan don’t waste my time with this sh**t!” is still current on all their payments after two and a half years.
To brokers like Kassar, the asshole factor is not so much about the likelihood of default anyway, but peace of mind. “Why invest emotional energy in putting up with shenanigan’s when there are so many good people who need our help,” he wrote.
Word is bond?
Regardless of what one study revealed about applicants that invoked God said about the likelihood of default, declining applicants on the basis of writing or talking about God could certainly be argued as religious discrimination. In many instances, religion is a protected class. Sometimes you have to ignore correlations because they can be deemed discriminatory.
One thing is for sure though, back in 2006 the upstanding characters I had created in my mind about the religious book store owners were upended when they disappeared into the night with all the money. Their words got in my head and I approved them perhaps because of it.
Years later, an asshole defaulted on the first day and not long after that, there would be a mysterious spate of accounts whose poor performance would be attributed to supposed hospital related events.
What’s buried in a person’s words? The answers allegedly. I promise…
